Global fuel shortages may persist until mid-2027 even if disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict ease, Morgan Stanley has warned, citing an unusually heavy refinery maintenance schedule that is expected to squeeze supplies.

The bank estimates that planned maintenance could take roughly 3.4 million barrels per day of refining capacity offline in the second quarter of 2027, about two and a half times the typical level. Shutdowns on that scale could hold back a recovery in global refining activity regardless of any improvement on the geopolitical front.

According to Morgan Stanley, the expected maintenance-related downtime would outstrip the refinery output cuts currently seen in the Middle East and Russia, suggesting that pressure on fuel supplies is likely to remain significant through the second quarter of next year.

Markets are already grappling with a growing diesel shortfall, as fuel exports from the Middle East and Russia decline amid production disruptions and attacks on energy infrastructure. These constraints have heightened concerns over the availability of refined petroleum products on international markets.

The International Energy Agency has separately cautioned that any rebound in Russian refinery output is likely to stay limited as Ukrainian strikes on refining facilities intensify, further clouding the supply picture.

Taken together, the outlook points to fuel markets remaining tight well into 2027, with refinery maintenance and ongoing production pressures extending the squeeze even if conflict-related disruptions subside.